Affected by low industry inventories and strong demand, glyphosate continues to run at a high level. Industry insiders told reporters that the price of glyphosate is expected to rise in the later period, and the upward trend may continue until next year…
A person from a glyphosate listed company told reporters that the current price of glyphosate has reached around 80,000 yuan/ton. According to Zhuo Chuang’s data, as of December 9, the average price of glyphosate in the mainstream national market was about 80,300 yuan/ton; compared to 53,400 yuan/ton on September 10, an increase of more than 50% in the past three months.
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The reporter noticed that since mid-September, the market price of glyphosate has begun to show a wide-ranging upward trend, and started to maintain a high level in November. Regarding the reasons for the high prosperity of the glyphosate market, the above-mentioned company person told the Cailian Press reporter: “Glyphosate is currently in the traditional peak season. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, there is a strong sense of overseas stocking and increasing inventory.”
The reporter learned from an industry insider that the current global production capacity is about 1.1 million tons, of which about 700,000 tons are all concentrated in mainland China, and overseas production capacity is mainly concentrated in Bayer, about 300,000 tons.
In addition to the traditional peak season that has caused prices to rise, low inventories are also one of the main reasons for the high prices of glyphosate. According to the reporter’s understanding, although the current electricity and production restrictions have been relaxed, the overall production capacity growth rate of glyphosate has been slower than market expectations. Accordingly, market supply has failed to meet expectations. In addition, traders intend to destock, resulting in total inventory. Still at the bottom. In addition, raw materials such as glycine at the cost end are strong at a high level, etc., which also support the price of glyphosate.
Regarding the future trend of glyphosate, the above-mentioned company person said: “We think the market may continue next year because the stock of glyphosate is currently very low. Because downstream (traders) need to continue to sell goods, that is, to destock and then stock up. The entire cycle may take a one-year cycle.”
In terms of supply, “glyphosate is a product of the “two highs”, and it is almost impossible for the industry to expand production in the future.”
In the context of my country’s promulgated policies that favor genetically modified planting, it is expected that once the domestic planting of genetically modified crops such as corn is liberalized, the demand for glyphosate will increase by at least 80,000 tons (assuming that all are glyphosate genetically modified products). In the context of the continued tightening of environmental protection supervision in the future and the limited availability of new production capacity, we are optimistic that the price of glyphosate will remain high.